Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal, Champions League semi-final: Simeone's last shot at glory meets a wounded Gunners side

Diego Simeone sat in the Metropolitano pressroom after the Copa del Rey final and said his squad gave “everything” to beat Barcelona and reach the final, and that they deserved more than a penalty shootout defeat to Real Sociedad.

He was right.

The Copa run was Atletico's season in miniature: extraordinary effort, brilliant moments, and ultimately left without the trophy they'd structured so much of their year around.

La Liga was long gone before the final whistle at the Estadio de la Cartuja stadium. The Champions League is all that remains. And on Wednesday night, the team standing between Simeone and the only thing his career has never given him is Arsenal.

Atletico's road to the semi-final carried its own drama. They beat Tottenham 5-2 in the Metropolitano in the round of 16 first leg, the kind of performance that reminded the continent what this stadium sounds like when Simeone's side are properly wound up, then survived a nervy second leg at White Hart Lane to go through.

The quarter-final against Barcelona was the emotional peak of the season. A 2-0 first-leg win in Camp Nou. A 2-0 deficit in Madrid in the return. Then Ademola Lookman, scored the goal that sent Atleti supporters behind the goal completely berserk. They went through 3-2 on aggregate.

If you wanted a picture of what this squad has become under Simeone's evolved approach, it is now more of an open, more attacking identity than the reactive low-block that defined the Argentineʼs first decade in Madrid, that Lookman moment delivered it well.

The problem for Wednesday night is that four of Simeone's key players are not certain to feature. Pablo Barrios, the 22-year-old midfield engine who covers more ground than almost anyone in this squad, is out with a hamstring injury and won't play either leg. Jose Gimenez, Atletico's most commanding centre-back, is still recovering from a muscle problem. Lookman is a doubt, which is specifically cruel given what he did against Barcelona three weeks ago. David Hancko, who had been one of Atletico's best defenders in the Champions League run, hasn't played in five weeks.

Simeone named his strongest available XI for the 3-2 win over Athletic on Saturday, which ended a four-game winless run, and Julian Alvarez, who had been nursing a minor complaint, trained fully on Monday and should start. But the gap between this Atletico and a fully fit Atletico is visible.

Arsenal's context feels different in texture but equally pressured. They top the Premier League on 73 points, three clear of City with a game in hand for their rivals. The title is closer than it's been in 22 years.

The Champions League semi-final is the second consecutive one they've reached, a historic first for the club. And yet the mood around the Emirates over the past six weeks has been genuinely anxious. They lost the Carabao Cup final to City at Wembley. They went out of the FA Cup to Southampton. They dropped points to Bournemouth at home in a result that shook the title race. They scraped past Sporting Lisbon on a single away goal across two legs.

The 1-0 win over Newcastle on Saturday settled some nerves but didn't fully lift the weight. This Arsenal side knows how to win ugly and grind results out in Europe. What it hasn't done consistently since the turn of the year is play with the freedom and intensity of the team that beat Atletico 4-0 in October.

That October result looms over Wednesday's game, but both camps have been careful about how much they lean on it. Simeone addressed it at his press conference, saying simply that six months in football is “a completely different reality.” He's right. The 4-0 came when Arsenal had momentum in every competition and Atletico were still finding their shape in the group phase.

Atletico have scored over 30 Champions League goals this season, more than in any previous European campaign in their history, and the 4-4-2 Simeone now runs, with Griezmann and Alvarez as the most dangerous attacking partnership in the competition outside of PSG, asks entirely different questions of a defence than the reactive unit Arsenal dismantled in the second half at the Emirates.

Wednesday night is Antoine Griezmann's final Champions League home appearance for Atletico before he joins Orlando City in the summer. He scored in the win over Athletic last weekend and has two goals and five assists in the Champions League this term.

The Metropolitano will be emotionally charged from the first minute, and Simeone will use that. He always does.

His record in this stadium, across 15 years, is one of the most imposing in European football, and Arsenal have the specific historical scar of losing 1-0 here in the Europa League semi-final in 2018. Atletico beat them over two legs that year on their way to the final. The memory lives somewhere in north London, and Simeone won't let anyone forget it.

For Arsenal, the calculation is simpler in theory and harder in practice.

An unbeaten Champions League campaign, 11 wins and a draw from 12 games. Declan Rice is fresh and physical after being managed carefully against Newcastle. Bukayo Saka is back and ready to start. Eberechi Eze, who came off in the second half at the weekend as a precaution, should be fine. The question Arteta has to answer is how aggressive to be in the first leg, whether to go and win the game or protect the away clean sheet and do the damage at the Emirates. His record in Europe suggests patience and defensive structure come first. The 4-0 against this same opposition suggests he also knows when to attack.

The Metropolitano holds around 68,000 people, and on Wednesday night, every one of them will believe Atletico can do it.