Arsenal vs Manchester City: a fixture-by-fixture breakdown of who has the harder run-in

Eberechi Eze's 9th-minute goal on Saturday settled a 1-0 win over Newcastle, and Arsenal went back to bed with 73 points and a three-point lead over Manchester City. Four games left for the Gunners, five for City because of the postponed Crystal Palace game in hand.

On paper, Arsenal need to win three of their four to be almost certain. City need to win all five and hope Arsenal slip. The maths is Arsenal's friend. But when you look at the fixture, it is more interesting interesting than you think.

Arsenal's four: manageable but not easy

Arsenal's four remaining games are all winnable, but none of them is a formality, and two of them come with specific historical weight that the Emirates dressing room will be well aware of.

Fulham (Home, MW35): Fulham at home on May 2 is the first task, and it comes four days after the first leg of the Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid in Spain.

Marco Silva's side haven't been brilliant away from Craven Cottage this season, with 16 points from 17 away games, but they're not a side that rolls over. Arsenal beat them 1-0 earlier in the season, but the 2023-24 reverse fixture produced a 2-2 draw that cost Arsenal ground in that title race.

West Ham (Away, MW36): West Ham away on May 9 is the fixture that has the most edge. Nuno Espirito Santo's side haven't lost at the London Stadium since January and held both United and City to draws there in the last two months. The Hammers have a point to prove, as they sit two points above the relegation zone and needing results.

The London Stadium has been Arsenal's undoing before. In December 2023, a 2-0 defeat there handed City a lifeline in that season's title race. Nuno won't be setting up to entertain.

Burnley (Home, MW37): Burnley at home on May 17 is the most straightforward of the four. The promoted side are practically already relegated, sitting bottom with 19 points and a goal difference of minus 34. Arsenal have beaten them 2-0 this season.

The danger is complacency and the Atletico second leg which comes four days earlier. If Arsenal are through to a Champions League final, the head will already be in Budapest. If they're out, it becomes the most important game left.

Crystal Palace (Away, MW38): Crystal Palace away on the final day is the wildcard. Selhurst Park has been Arsenal's nemesis in title-deciding moments before.

In 1989, Arsenal needed to win by two at Anfield to take the league on the final day. Less remembered is that had they not beaten Palace 2-1 a week earlier, it wouldn't have even come to that.

More recently, in 2023, Arsenal won at Selhurst in the penultimate game while City handled their business elsewhere and it wasn't enough. This time, Oliver Glasner's Palace are chasing a Conference League final in Leipzig. If they're through, their first-team focus may drift. If they're not, Selhurst will be a cauldron.

Man City's five: three bankers, two questions

Three of City's five games look very manageable. Two of them have the kind of historical uncertainty that makes Guardiola's job uncomfortable even when his squad is at full strength.

Crystal Palace (Home, TBD): Crystal Palace at home, date to be determined, is the game everyone is watching for scheduling. It's the game in hand created by March's Carabao Cup final, and it may be played in the week of May 20.

Palace are in a Conference League semi-final against Shakhtar Donetsk and could have their eyes elsewhere. City have been beaten at the Etihad by Palace before, 2-0 in October 2021 and, memorably, 3-2 in December 2018 when Andros Townsend scored a Puskas Award-winning volley.

The timing of this fixture, when it's confirmed, could change the final week.

Everton (Away, MW35): Everton away on May 4 is more hazard than it sounds. The Toffees are safe but spoilers by tradition, and City have been vulnerable on the road in streaky runs this season. Sean Dyche's replacement has steadied things.

Everton left Arsenal with a 1-0 narrow lead for a long stretch last month before Max Dowman's die-minute finish broke their hearts in stoppage time. The Toffees will be motivated to deny City the same way.

Brentford (Home, MW36): Brentford at home on May 10 is City's clearest banker. Keith Andrews' side have had an excellent season and are still chasing European qualification, but the Etihad in a title run-in is a different proposition from most venues in this league.

Bournemouth (Away, MW37): Bournemouth away on May 16 is interesting because of what they did to Arsenal last week. Andoni Iraola's side beat the Gunners 2-1 at the Emirates and play a relentless, physically demanding brand of pressing football. They'll do the same to City, and City conceded two away goals at United in March.

Aston Villa (Home, MW38): Aston Villa at home on the final day, May 24, closes City's season. Unai Emery's side are in the Europa League semi-final against Nottingham Forest, and if Villa reach the final in Istanbul on May 20, they travel to Turkey, play 90 minutes or more, and then come back for a potential title-deciding game against City four days later.

That Europa League journey could be City's best friend. Villa in normal circumstances would be formidable. Villa on the back of a European final, all other things being equal, are something else.

What all these mean is that Arsenal win three of four and City drop a single point, the title is in north London for the first time in 22 years.

Arsenal win four and City win five, we go to the final day level on points with City having the better goal difference. Arsenal drop two and City win five, Guardiola gets his sixth Premier League.

All that scenarios and permutations are live. The margin is three points, one dropped game, and four weeks of football that will be discussed for a very long time.